Rabobank’s latest Wine Quarterly Report shows that global wine production is likely to be down by between 2% and 4%.

The bank says that with the exception of France, wine grape production “appears set to decline across nearly every major production region” compared to 2013. Although official estimates have yet to be released from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), Rabobank believes global production could decline between 2% and 4%.

In the US the crop is set to be a “healthy size”, albeit well below 2013’s record harvest. Estimates put it at 5 to 10% lower than 2013, which is still larger than most of its crops pre-2012. Most wineries are currently well-stocked with storage at a premium, although “the threat of ongoing drought is mitigating the perception of oversupply”.

Europe is looking at a significant decline – Spain is set to be well below last year’s bumper crop but still large when compared to vintages before that. Italy is looking at a 15% drop in production, with Sicilian crops appearing especially low. While French production will be up on 2013’s tricky vintage, the country’s bulk-producing stronghold the Languedoc is facing a much smaller crop.

Australia’s crop has come in at 1.7 million tonnes, down 7% on last year – which has boosted stocks and caused grape prices to drop.

New Zealand’s harvest was a new record, in at 445,000 tonnes, up almost one third on 2013, which was also a record year.

But Chile saw production fall by 23% in 2014 versus the previous year. An early frost hit Chardonnay production hard. Despite the smaller harvest, Chile still has plenty of stock to meet demand, Rabobank says.

Argentina saw its crop fall 8% in 2014, although Rabobank says “it was still a reasonably healthy sized crop, and supply is broadly available”.